Wednesday, November 4, 2009

The Yankees Win

World Series Titles (27)

2009 • 2000 • 1999 • 1998
1996 • 1978 • 1977 • 1962
1961 • 1958 • 1956 • 1953
1952 • 1951 • 1950 • 1949
1947 • 1943 • 1941 • 1939
1938 • 1937 • 1936 • 1932
1928 • 1927 • 1923

For Those Keeping Score.....




Some of the above bankruptcies have directly impacted individual investors. For example, CIT and GM issued medium term notes (debt trading in $1,000 increments) that were popular in retirement accounts. These obligations were junior to the larger debt issues that were traded by institutional accounts. As a result, individual investors may have only realized a return of 40 cents on the dollar.

ADP Jobs Report: The Fun Begins



According to data compiled by ADP, non-farm payrolls decreased by 203,000 jobs in October. This was in line with the consensus estimate of -198,000. Job losses among small business totaled 75,000: smallest loss in over a year. Revisions to previous months decreased the number of job losses.

This does not impact my forecast for this Friday's BLS report: a loss of 188,000 jobs. I believe that the economists are forecasting a loss of 175,000, so my guess is not that extreme this time around.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Monthly Auto Sales: In the Wake of "Cash for Clunkers"

"Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change."

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2009 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)
Bureau of Economic Analysis 10/29/09

Autodata's U.S. Light Vehicle Retail Sales report for October was released today:

Actual sales: 838,052 units

Seasonally adjusted annual rate: 10.46 million units

This compares to a third quarter monthly average of 11.52 million units. What will the fourth-quarter GDP report look like with the end of the CARS incentive program? Great question. An even better question is what was the true cost to the taxpayer?

On 10/28/09, Edmunds.com released their analysis of the program: each incremental auto sale cost the taxpayer $24,000. The average transaction price per vehicle (including cash rebates) was $25,248. The White House issued a rebuttal the following day and Edmunds.com stood by their findings.