| Date | Time (ET) | Statistic | For | Actual | Briefing Forecast | Market Expects | Prior | Revised From |
| Sep 15 | 8:30 AM | Core PPI | Aug | - | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | - |
| Sep 15 | 8:30 AM | PPI | Aug | - | 1.0% | 0.8% | -0.9% | - |
| Sep 15 | 8:30 AM | Retail Sales | Aug | - | 2.1% | 1.9% | -0.1% | - |
| Sep 15 | 8:30 AM | Retail Sales ex-auto | Aug | - | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.6% | - |
| Sep 15 | 8:30 AM | Empire Manufacturing | Sep | - | 13.00 | 15.00 | 12.08 | - |
| Sep 15 | 10:00 AM | Business Inventories | Jul | - | -1.2% | -0.8% | -1.1% | - |
| Sep 16 | 8:30 AM | Core CPI | Aug | - | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Sep 16 | 8:30 AM | CPI | Aug | - | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | - |
| Sep 16 | 9:00 AM | Net Long-term TIC Flows | Jul | - | NA | NA | -31.2B | - |
| Sep 16 | 9:15 AM | Capacity Utilization | Aug | - | 69.6% | 69.1% | 68.5% | - |
| Sep 16 | 9:15 AM | Industrial Production | Aug | - | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | - |
| Sep 16 | 10:30 AM | Crude Inventories | 09/11 | - | NA | NA | -5.91M | - |
| Sep 16 | 10:35 AM | Crude Inventories | 09/11 | - | NA | NA | NA | - |
| Sep 17 | 8:30 AM | Building Permits | Aug | - | 575K | 596K | 564K | - |
| Sep 17 | 8:30 AM | Housing Starts | Aug | - | 570K | 580K | 581K | - |
| Sep 17 | 8:30 AM | Initial Claims | 09/12 | - | 565K | 555K | 550K | - |
| Sep 17 | 8:30 AM | Continuing Claims | 09/05 | - | 6000K | 6114K | 6088K | - |
| Sep 17 | 10:00 AM | Philadelphia Fed | Sep | - | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.2 | - |
Showing posts with label Data. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Data. Show all posts
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Big Week for Data
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Short Week, Not Much Data
==============================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
==============================================================
Cons. Credit $ Blns 9/8 July -10.3 -4.0
ABC Conf Index 9/8 Sept. 7 -45 -44
MBA Mortgage Applicatio 9/9 Sept. 5 -2.2% n/a
Trade Balance $ Blns 9/10 July -27.0 -27.4
Initial Claims ,000’s 9/10 29-Aug 570 560
Cont. Claims ,000’s 9/10 22-Aug 6234 6200
Import Prices MOM% 9/11 Aug. -0.7% 1.0%
Import Prices YOY% 9/11 Aug. -19.3% -15.9%
U of Mich Conf. Index 9/11 Sept. P 65.7 67.5
Whlsale Inv. MOM% 9/11 July -1.7% -1.0%
Federal Budget $ Blns 9/11 Aug. -111.9 -159.1
==============================================================
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Economic Data Coming Up
===============================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
===============================================================
Empire Manu. Index 8/17 Aug. -0.6 3.0
Net Long Term TICS $ Bl 8/17 June -19.8 17.5
Total TICS $ Blns 8/17 June -66.6 23.0
NAHB Housing Index 8/17 Aug. 17 18
PPI MOM% 8/18 July 1.8% -0.3%
Core PPI MOM% 8/18 July 0.5% 0.1%
PPI YOY% 8/18 July -4.6% -5.9%
Core PPI YOY% 8/18 July 3.3% 2.8%
Housing Starts ,000’s 8/18 July 582 598
Building Permits ,000’s 8/18 July 570 575
Initial Claims ,000’s 8/20 8-Aug 558 550
Cont. Claims ,000’s 8/20 1-Aug 6202 6228
Philly Fed Index 8/20 Aug. -7.5 -2.0
LEI MOM% 8/20 July 0.7% 0.7%
Exist Homes Mlns 8/21 July 4.89 5.00
Exist Homes MOM% 8/21 July 3.6% 2.1%
===============================================================
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Another Big Data Week
================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
ISM Manu Index 8/3 July 44.8 46.5
ISM Prices Index 8/3 July 50.0 51.5
Construct Spending MOM% 8/3 June -0.9% -0.5%
Vehicle Sales Mlns 8/3 July 9.7 10.0
Domestic Vehicles Mlns 8/3 July 7.2 7.4
Pers Inc MOM% 8/4 June 1.4% -1.0%
Pers Spend MOM% 8/4 June 0.3% 0.3%
PCE Deflator YOY% 8/4 June 0.1% 0.2%
Core PCE Prices MOM% 8/4 June 0.1% 0.2%
Core PCE Prices YOY% 8/4 June 1.8% 1.7%
Pending Homes MOM% 8/4 June 0.1% 0.6%
ISM NonManu Index 8/5 July 47.0 48.0
Factory Orders MOM% 8/5 June 1.2% -0.6%
Initial Claims ,000’s 8/6 18-Jul 584 580
Cont. Claims ,000’s 8/6 11-Jul 6197 6245
Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s 8/7 July -467 -325
Unemploy Rate % 8/7 July 9.5% 9.6%
Manu Payrolls ,000’s 8/7 July -136 -105
Hourly Earnings MOM% 8/7 July 0.0% 0.1%
Hourly Earnings YOY% 8/7 July 2.7% 2.5%
Avg Weekly Hours 8/7 July 33.0 33.0
Cons. Credit $ Blns 8/7 July -3.2 -4.2
================================================================
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Upcoming Data Calendar
================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
New Home Sales ,000’s 7/27 June 342 352
New Home Sales MOM% 7/27 June 2.7% 2.9%
Case Shiller Monthly YO 7/28 May -18.1% -17.9%
Case Shiller Monthly In 7/28 May 139.2 138.6
Consumer Conf Index 7/28 July 49.3 49.0
Durables Orders MOM% 7/29 June 1.8% -0.6%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 7/29 June 1.1% 0.0%
Initial Claims ,000’s 7/30 18-Jul 554 580
Cont. Claims ,000’s 7/30 11-Jul 6225 6300
GDP Annual QOQ% 7/31 1Q A -5.5% -1.5%
Personal Consump. QOQ% 7/31 1Q A 1.4% -0.5%
GDP Prices QOQ% 7/31 1Q A 2.8% 1.0%
Core PCE Prices QOQ% 7/31 1Q A 1.6% 2.4%
Employ Costs QOQ% 7/31 2Q 0.3% 0.3%
Chicago PM Index 7/31 July 39.9 43.0
NAPM Milwaukee Index 7/31 July 50.0 52.0
================================================================
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Lots 'o Data Coming Up
| Date | Time (ET) | Statistic | For | Actual | Briefing Forecast | Market Expects | Prior | Revised From |
| Jul 13 | 2:00 PM | Treasury Budget | Jun | - | NA | -$77.5B | $33.5B | - |
| Jul 14 | 8:30 AM | Core PPI | Jun | - | NA | 0.1% | -0.1% | - |
| Jul 14 | 8:30 AM | PPI | Jun | - | NA | 0.8% | 0.2% | - |
| Jul 14 | 8:30 AM | Retail Sales | Jun | - | NA | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
| Jul 14 | 8:30 AM | Retail Sales ex-auto | Jun | - | NA | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
| Jul 14 | 10:00 AM | Business Inventories | May | - | NA | -1.0% | -1.1% | - |
| Jul 15 | 8:30 AM | Core CPI | Jun | - | NA | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Jul 15 | 8:30 AM | CPI | Jun | - | NA | 0.6% | 0.1% | - |
| Jul 15 | 8:30 AM | Empire Manufacturing | Jul | - | NA | -5.00 | -9.41 | - |
| Jul 15 | 9:15 AM | Capacity Utilization | Jun | - | NA | 67.9% | 68.3% | - |
| Jul 15 | 9:15 AM | Industrial Production | Jun | - | NA | -0.6% | -1.1% | - |
| Jul 15 | 10:00 AM | Business Inventories | May | - | NA | NA | NA | - |
| Jul 15 | 10:30 AM | Crude Inventories | 07/10 | - | NA | NA | -2.90M | - |
| Jul 15 | 2:00 PM | Minutes of FOMC Meeting | June 24 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 16 | 8:30 AM | Initial Claims | 07/11 | - | NA | NA | 565K | - |
| Jul 16 | 9:00 AM | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | May | - | NA | NA | $11.2B | - |
| Jul 16 | 10:00 AM | Philadelphia Fed | Jul | - | NA | -5.0 | -2.2 | - |
| Jul 17 | 8:30 AM | Building Permits | Jun | - | NA | 523K | 518K | - |
| Jul 17 | 8:30 AM | Housing Starts | Jun | - | NA | 530K | 532K | - |
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Major Economic Releases on the Horizon
================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
Case Shiller Monthly YO 6/30 April -18.7% -18.8%
Case Shiller Monthly In 6/30 April 140.0 n/a
Consumer Conf Index 6/30 June 54.9 55.2
ADP Payroll ,000’s 7/1 June -532 -390
Construct Spending MOM% 7/1 May 0.8% -0.6%
ISM Manu Index 7/1 June 42.8 44.5
ISM Prices Index 7/1 June 43.5 47.0
Pending Homes MOM% 7/1 May 6.7% 0.5%
Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s 7/2 June -345 -350
Unemploy Rate % 7/2 June 9.4% 9.6%
Manu Payrolls ,000’s 7/2 June -156 -150
Hourly Earnings MOM% 7/2 June 0.1% 0.1%
Hourly Earnings YOY% 7/2 June 3.1% 2.9%
Avg Weekly Hours 7/2 June 33.1 33.1
Initial Claims ,000’s 7/2 27-Jun 627 615
Cont. Claims ,000’s 7/2 20-Jun 6738 6740
Factory Orders MOM% 7/2 May 0.7% 0.8%
================================================================
Friday, June 26, 2009
Personal Income & Spending: What Really Happened in May?
The above graphs track the same information over different time frames. The one on the right focuses on the last few years, highlighting the fact that income growth has stagnated.
Today's report announced that personal income increased $167.1 billion from the previous month. Consumption and savings increased as well: savings expanding at a much faster rate than spending. Please review the graph below.
However, the announcement that private wage & salary disbursements, goods producing industries' payrolls, and manufacturing payrolls decreased at a faster rate than the previous month caught me by surprise. In addition, service producing industries' payrolls and government wage & salary disbursements increased at a slower rate than the previous month. How can income expand without wages expanding?
Great question. The answer is........ "Personal Current Transfer Receipts." This figure increased by $162.6 billion in May, representing almost the entire gain in personal income. BEA's definition below:
Personal current transfer receipts
This component of personal income is payments to persons for which no current services are performed. It consists of payments to individuals and to nonprofit institutions by Federal, state, and local governments and by businesses.
Government payments to individuals includes retirement and disability insurance benefits, medical payments (mainly Medicare and Medicaid), income maintenance benefits, unemployment insurance benefits, veterans benefits, and Federal grants and loans to students. Government payments to nonprofit institutions excludes payments by the Federal Government for work under research and development contracts. Business payments to persons consists primarily of liability payments for personal injury and of corporate gifts to nonprofit institutions.
Please allow me to emphasize: "This component of personal income is payments to persons for which no current services are performed."THAT CONSTITUTES A NET DRAIN ON THE ECONOMY TO BE BORNE BY TAXPAYERS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Upcoming Economic Data
================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
Exist Homes Mlns 6/23 May 4.68 4.82
Exist Homes MOM% 6/23 May 2.9% 3.0%
Durables Orders MOM% 6/24 May 1.7% -0.8%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 6/24 May 0.4% -0.4%
New Home Sales ,000’s 6/24 May 352 360
New Home Sales MOM% 6/24 May 0.3% 2.3%
GDP Annual QOQ% 6/25 1Q F -5.7% -5.7%
Personal Consump. QOQ% 6/25 1Q F 1.5% 1.5%
GDP Prices QOQ% 6/25 1Q F 2.8% 2.8%
Core PCE Prices QOQ% 6/25 1Q F 1.5% 1.5%
Initial Claims ,000’s 6/25 13-Jun 608 600
Cont. Claims ,000’s 6/25 6-Jun 6687 6707
Pers Inc MOM% 6/26 May 0.5% 0.3%
Pers Spend MOM% 6/26 May -0.1% 0.3%
PCE Deflator YOY% 6/26 May 0.4% 0.1%
Core PCE Prices MOM% 6/26 May 0.3% 0.1%
Core PCE Prices YOY% 6/26 May 1.9% 1.8%
U of Mich Conf. Index 6/26 June F 69.0 69.0
================================================================
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
"I.P. Never Lies"
When I was back there in seminary school, an old time trader said to me "I.P. never lies."
Whenever I listened to him, I made money. Every time I forget what he told me.......
Anyway, there is tremendous slack in our economy. Slack = Deflation
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Upcoming Data
===============================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
Empire Manu. Index 6/15 June -4.6 -4.6
NAHB Housing Index 6/15 June 16 17
PPI MOM% 6/16 May 0.3% 0.6%
Core PPI MOM% 6/16 May 0.1% 0.1%
PPI YOY% 6/16 May -3.7% -4.4%
Core PPI YOY% 6/16 May 3.4% 3.2%
Housing Starts ,000’s 6/16 May 458 485
Building Permits ,000’s 6/16 May 498 509
Ind. Prod. MOM% 6/16 May -0.5% -1.0%
Cap. Util. % 6/16 May 69.1% 68.4%
CPI MOM% 6/17 May 0.0% 0.3%
Core CPI MOM% 6/17 May 0.3% 0.1%
CPI YOY% 6/17 May -0.7% -0.9%
Core CPI YOY% 6/17 May 1.9% 1.8%
Core CPI SA Index 6/17 May 218.594 219.031
CPI NSA Index 6/17 May 213.240 214.589
Current Account $ Blns 6/17 1Q -132.8 -84.8
Initial Claims ,000’s 6/18 13-Jun 601 605
Cont. Claims ,000’s 6/18 6-Jun 6816 6839
LEI MOM% 6/18 May 1.0% 1.0%
Philly Fed Index 6/18 June -22.6 -17.4
================================================================
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Not Much Data Coming Up
================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
Whlsale Inv. MOM% 6/9 April -1.6% -1.1%
Trade Balance $ Blns 6/10 April -27.6 -29.0
Federal Budget $ Blns 6/10 May -165.9 -181.0
Initial Claims ,000’s 6/11 6-Jun 621 615
Cont. Claims ,000’s 6/11 30-May 6735 6770
Retail Sales MOM% 6/11 May -0.4% 0.5%
Retail ex-autos MOM% 6/11 May -0.5% 0.2%
Business Inv. MOM% 6/11 April -1.0% -1.0%
Import Prices MOM% 6/12 May 1.6% 1.4%
Import Prices YOY% 6/12 May -16.3% -17.4%
U of Mich Conf. Index 6/12 June P 68.7 69.5
================================================================
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Upcoming Economic Data
================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
Pers Inc MOM% 6/1 April -0.3% -0.2%
Pers Spend MOM% 6/1 April -0.2% -0.2%
Construct Spending MOM% 6/1 April 0.3% -1.5%
ISM Manu Index 6/1 May 40.1 42.0
ISM Prices Index 6/1 May 32.0 35.0
Pending Homes MOM% 6/2 April 3.2% 0.5%
ADP Payroll ,000’s 6/3 May -491 -533
ISM NonManu Index 6/3 May 43.7 45.0
Factory Orders MOM% 6/3 April -0.9% 0.8%
Productivity QOQ% 6/4 1Q 0.8% 1.2%
Labor Costs QOQ% 6/4 1Q F 3.3% 2.9%
Initial Claims ,000’s 6/4 30-May 623 620
Cont. Claims ,000’s 6/4 23-May 6788 6855
Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s 6/5 May -539 -521
Unemploy Rate % 6/5 May 8.9% 9.2%
Manu Payrolls ,000’s 6/5 May -149 -150
Hourly Earnings MOM% 6/5 May 0.1% 0.1%
Hourly Earnings YOY% 6/5 May 3.2% 3.1%
Avg Weekly Hours 6/5 May 33.2 33.2
Cons. Credit $ Blns 6/5 April -11.1 -6.0
================================================================
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Next Week's Economic Data
================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
Case Shiller Monthly YO 5/26 March -18.6% -18.4%
Consumer Conf Index 5/26 May 39.2 43.0
Exist Homes Mlns 5/27 April 4.57 4.66
Exist Homes MOM% 5/27 April -3.0% 2.0%
Durables Orders MOM% 5/28 April -0.8% 0.4%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 5/28 April -0.7% -0.3%
Initial Claims ,000’s 5/28 23-May 631 630
Cont. Claims ,000’s 5/28 16-May 6662 6740
New Home Sales ,000’s 5/28 April 356 360
New Home Sales MOM% 5/28 April -0.6% 1.1%
GDP Annual QOQ% 5/29 1Q P -6.1% -5.5%
Personal Consump. QOQ% 5/29 1Q P 2.2% 2.0%
GDP Prices QOQ% 5/29 1Q P 2.9% 2.9%
Core PCE Prices QOQ% 5/29 1Q P 1.5% 1.5%
Chicago PM Index 5/29 May 40.1 42.0
U of Mich Conf. Index 5/29 May F 67.9 68.0
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Economic Data This Week
| Date | Time (ET) | Statistic | For | Actual | Briefing Forecast | Market Expects | Prior | Revised From |
| May 19 | 8:30 AM | Building Permits | Apr | - | NA | 530K | 516K | - |
| May 19 | 8:30 AM | Housing Starts | Apr | - | NA | 527K | 510K | - |
| May 20 | 10:30 AM | Crude Inventories | 05/15 | - | NA | NA | -4.63M | - |
| May 20 | 10:35 AM | Crude Inventories | 05/15 | - | NA | NA | NA | - |
| May 20 | 2:00 PM | FOMC Minutes | 04/29 | - | NA | NA | NA | - |
| May 21 | 8:30 AM | Initial Claims | 05/16 | - | NA | NA | 610K | - |
| May 21 | 10:00 AM | Leading Indicators | Apr | - | NA | 0.6% | -0.3% | - |
| May 21 | 10:00 AM | Philadelphia Fed | May | - | NA | -18.0 | NA | - |
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Better Late Than Never: Economic Data Review
Several important economic reports were released today. They all had one thing in common: the economy is far from okay. This falling chain of dominoes has been set in motion by the real estate bubble.
New home sales have fallen off the proverbial cliff. Over supply and ever tightening credit standards are the culprits, the later being covered in previous posts regarding bank reserves.
Without robust new home sales, one would expect durable goods sales to suffer as well. As covered in an earlier post, durable goods are products such as appliances, home furnishings, electronic equipment, etc.
Without robust durable goods sales, one would expect job losses. Initial jobless claims have been rising and now stand at multi-year highs.
Continuing claims are rising as well. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a job after termination.
Some members of the press corps have dismissed this data because the population has grown since the last time the U.S. experienced similar job losses. To those Pollyannas: the above graph lets us know that we have surpassed RELATIVE highs in the number of jobless claims as well
New home sales have fallen off the proverbial cliff. Over supply and ever tightening credit standards are the culprits, the later being covered in previous posts regarding bank reserves.
Without robust new home sales, one would expect durable goods sales to suffer as well. As covered in an earlier post, durable goods are products such as appliances, home furnishings, electronic equipment, etc.
Without robust durable goods sales, one would expect job losses. Initial jobless claims have been rising and now stand at multi-year highs.
Continuing claims are rising as well. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a job after termination.
Some members of the press corps have dismissed this data because the population has grown since the last time the U.S. experienced similar job losses. To those Pollyannas: the above graph lets us know that we have surpassed RELATIVE highs in the number of jobless claims as well
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