Wednesday, November 4, 2009

The Yankees Win

World Series Titles (27)


For Those Keeping Score.....

Some of the above bankruptcies have directly impacted individual investors. For example, CIT and GM issued medium term notes (debt trading in $1,000 increments) that were popular in retirement accounts. These obligations were junior to the larger debt issues that were traded by institutional accounts. As a result, individual investors may have only realized a return of 40 cents on the dollar.

ADP Jobs Report: The Fun Begins

According to data compiled by ADP, non-farm payrolls decreased by 203,000 jobs in October. This was in line with the consensus estimate of -198,000. Job losses among small business totaled 75,000: smallest loss in over a year. Revisions to previous months decreased the number of job losses.

This does not impact my forecast for this Friday's BLS report: a loss of 188,000 jobs. I believe that the economists are forecasting a loss of 175,000, so my guess is not that extreme this time around.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Monthly Auto Sales: In the Wake of "Cash for Clunkers"

"Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change."

Bureau of Economic Analysis 10/29/09

Autodata's U.S. Light Vehicle Retail Sales report for October was released today:

Actual sales: 838,052 units

Seasonally adjusted annual rate: 10.46 million units

This compares to a third quarter monthly average of 11.52 million units. What will the fourth-quarter GDP report look like with the end of the CARS incentive program? Great question. An even better question is what was the true cost to the taxpayer?

On 10/28/09, released their analysis of the program: each incremental auto sale cost the taxpayer $24,000. The average transaction price per vehicle (including cash rebates) was $25,248. The White House issued a rebuttal the following day and stood by their findings.