Weekly Jobless Claims

With this week's jobless claims numbers in the books, I am forecasting a non-farm payroll tally of:

-259,000

I think the consensus will be about -205,000.

Incidentally, in order for the non-farm payroll number to hit zero, my model suggests that the weekly jobless claim number needs to be roughly 375,000.

Jobs Data: Weekly Claims

Weekly jobless claims came in a bit better than expectations at 550,000 (initial claims). Continuing claims are still hovering over 6 million, I have noted in past posts that interpreting this number is becoming more difficult because of the expiration of benefits.

We now have 3 of the 4 weeks in for modeling the September non-farm payroll report. The survey period ends on the 12th of each month, so the last 3 weeks of initial claims correspond to that time frame. The average initial claims for the last 3 weeks is 568,000: according to my model, this points to a drop of about 250,000 in non-farm payrolls.

This is a major problem. I know, job losses have slowed. However, could somebody please explain to me where people are going to get money to pay for stuff:

- Home prices are down roughly 18% from last year: no mortgage equity withdrawal

- Unemployment is creeping up on 10%: no jobs & wage pressure crimp income

- Expiration of unemployment insurance: no more weekly help form the government

- Consumer credit is falling: can't roll over debts any longer or borrow additional funds

- Negative wealth effect: equities have rallied since March, but are still below 2008 levels.

Weekly Jobless Claims: More Seasonal Impacts

Initial jobless claims came in an 554,000: just around the consensus estimate. Back on July 9, I mentioned that seasonal adjustment factors would distort this number for a few weeks. Starting with next weeks report, the number will jump dramatically higher. In fact, if next week's factor was applied to this week's report, the number would have been 669,000 !!!!!

The same can be said for the continuing claims number, although to a lesser extent. I have also noted in past posts that this number becomes tougher to interpret because we don't know why this number is falling; new jobs or expiration of benefits?

In summary:

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

---

	Advance				Prior1
WEEK ENDING	July 18	July 11	Change	July 4	Year

---

Initial Claims (SA)	554,000	524,000	+30,000	569,000	413,000
Initial Claims (NSA)	580,944	671,242	-90,298	581,145	411,408
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	566,000	585,000	-19,000	607,000	393,000

	Advance				Prior1
WEEK ENDING	July 11	July 4	Change	June 27	Year

---

Ins. Unemployment (SA)	6,225,000	6,313,000	-88,000	6,904,000	3,165,000
Ins. Unemployment (NSA)	6,231,108	6,173,940	+57,168	6,061,619	3,164,970
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	6,541,500	6,674,000	-132,500	6,774,250	3,176,000

---

Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)2	4.7%	4.7%	0.0	5.2%	2.4%
Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA)2	4.7%	4.6%	+0.1	4.5%	2.4%

Weekly Jobless Claims: Take Note of Seasonal Factors

Initial jobless claims fell below 600,000 for the first time since late January. This came in lower than most estimates. Continuing claims resumed their upward climb, eclipsing 6.8 million in this week's report.

It is worth noting that the seasonal factors for the next 2 weeks (this week's report as well) are considerably different from the last few weeks. In fact, if the same factor from last week as used in this week's report, the initial claims figure would have been 637,000!

This is one of the major reasons why one week's worth of data is of nominal importance.

The below link will bring you to the whole report:

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

More Jobs Data: Weekly Claims

Initial claims came in on the screws: 614,000 vs. estimate of 615,000.

Continuing claims came in a bit lower than forecast. This number is showing signs of having hit a peak 3 weeks ago. However, as I have mentioned in previous posts, it is important to know why the number is falling. If it is falling because people are finding jobs, great. If it is falling because people's benefits are expiring, not so good. Thirty-four states (and D.C. & P.R. as well) are offering extended benefits to those still looking for jobs. Those hopeful citizens are not included in this tally. I am trying to quantify.

Jobless Claims

Another disappointment for the green shooters: 627,000 initial claims & 6,738,000 continuing claims in this week's report. In addition, the previous report's numbers were revised higher: more initial claims and more continuing claims than previously estimated. However, the revision to the continuing claims number was not enough to continue the record streak.

The IUR is still 5.0%, suggesting that corporations feel little need to add workers. Initial claims have now exceeded 600,000 for 21 straight weeks. With the revisions to the previous week's data, my first guess at the June payroll losses is 450,000.

Equity futures are trading around the overnight lows.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Reported initial jobless claims were in in line with estimates: 608,000 (increase of 3,000). The previous week's number was revised upward (slightly) to 605,000. Continuing jobless claims fell for the first time since January.

Please note:

- Continuing claims were thought to have fallen 2 weeks ago, but the number was revised higher

- Even if the number is not revised higher, we don't know why the number dropped. Was it because people are finding jobs or is it because their benefits expired? A few weeks ago, I made mention of this. The longer the slide in jobs continues, the tougher it becomes to interpret the data.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Initial claims retreated to 601,000: the lowest weekly figure since 1/24/09. This marked the 19th consecutive week of at least 600,000 initial claims.

Continuing claims rose to 6,816,000. The previous week's number were revised higher, so the record streak was not actually broken.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Headline line number came in as expected: 621,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits. This marks the 18th consecutive week the number has come in over 600,000 and the 4 week moving average climbed to 631,250 (the increase is due to the week of 5/2/09 dropping out of the average: only 605,000 initial claims that week).

It is certainly possible that we have witnessed the apex of initial claims. However, this is completely different than saying more jobs are being created.

Continuing claims actually showed signs of abating: 6,735,000 from the previous week's 6,750,000 (revised lower). This ended the record string of increases and is the first ray of light for this data series. The IUR held at 5.0% (the previous week's rate was revised lower by 0.1%), although it is not clear from the report if this was from the expiration of benefits or people finding jobs.

Now that I think about it, that is something that needs to be considered: as the recession lingers, unless the benefits are extended, this number could drop and not signal a jobs recovery. This is getting complicated......

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims dropped to 623,000 last week, from an upwardly revised 636,000 level. While it is certainly possible that initial claims have peaked (I'll forget about measuring the initial claims number as a portion of the labor pool left for now), continuing claims continued their inexorable march to 7 million. The latest tally is 6,788,000: a 110,000 increase from the previous number (and new record).

The IUR increased to 5.1%, a continued sign that finding a job is exceedingly difficult. Don't forget, college graduates will be hitting the bricks too.

Jobless Claims: Green Shoots My A$$

16th week in a row initial claims topped 600,000

6th week in a row continuing claims topped 6,000,000 (and another new record)

IUR hits 5.0%

Early guess for May non-farm: -592,000

Jobless Claims & PPI

Initial jobless claims moved higher form the previous report: 605,000 was the revised number for 5/2/09 and 637,000 was the number for 5/9/09. Several pundits claimed that the previous report marked the bottom in claims. This is a volatile series, but in any case, one month does not a trend make. Not even three months can always be trusted to mark a new direction.

This was the first report to include idled Chrysler workers, expect more in the next few weeks. In addition, a GM bankruptcy is all but certain.

Continuing claims skyrocketed over 6.5 million and he IUR rose to 4.9%, the job market is still sick. As I mentioned last week, it is possible that initial claims will taper off. However, job GROWTH is non-existent.




PPI rose month over month, but are still 3.5% lower than they were 12 months ago. Already, the press is claiming that this ends the deflation discussion. When will they learn?