Friday, January 30, 2009

3 on a Match: FDIC Closes More Banks



Three more banks were closed by the FDIC today, all of which were at the top of our bad banks list. Oddly, the FDIC did not release a loss estimate for MagnetBank.

The trend of high FDIC losses relative to bank assets continues......and the FDIC wants to manage the bad bank !!????!??!???!

They failed at regulating and monitoring banks, modified IndyMac loans are defaulting just as quickly as the original loans, the insurance fund is under $40 billion and they want more responsibility?

U.S. Economy is Sinking...Quickly

The Advance GDP report was released today: adjusted for inflation, output decreased at an annualized rate of 3.8%. This is the largest quarterly drop in 26 years. This is the first estimate of fourth quarter growth, two more releases will follow with revised data.  It is possible that the final numbers will improve, but I am not holding out hope.






The graph below tracks U.S. Treasury Debt as a percentage of nominal (unadjusted for inflation) GDP. On 9/30/08 (the most recent date with finalized data), the ratio stood at 69.6%. This is the highest level in a generation. Preliminarily, using Treasury estimates and today's GDP report, the ratio is at 75%.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Better Late Than Never: Economic Data Review

Several important economic reports were released today. They all had one thing in common: the economy is far from okay. This falling chain of dominoes has been set in motion by the real estate bubble.





New home sales have fallen off the proverbial cliff. Over supply and ever tightening credit standards are the culprits, the later being covered in previous posts regarding bank reserves.





Without robust new home sales, one would expect durable goods sales to suffer as well. As covered in an earlier post, durable goods are products such as appliances, home furnishings, electronic equipment, etc.





Without robust durable goods sales, one would expect job losses. Initial jobless claims have been rising and now stand at multi-year highs.





Continuing claims are rising as well. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a job after termination.





Some members of the press corps have dismissed this data because the population has grown since the last time the U.S. experienced similar job losses. To those Pollyannas: the above graph lets us know that we have surpassed RELATIVE highs in the number of jobless claims as well

Meredith Whitney is on Board

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDhbCDKbK380&refer=home

“Simply removing ‘toxic’ assets from bank balance sheets will not directly cause banks to increase lending,” Whitney wrote in a note today.

The banks likely won’t participate in selling assets if the Obama administration wants to pay fair market value for the assets “as capital hits would be too dear,” Whitney said.

Experts Agree With Populus Vox

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agLphQxeK8_k


“We should not trust these bankers; look at their track record,” Taleb said. “They know we’re going to bail them out. They hold us as hostages” and “the only way to stop the process is for the government to own those banks, tell them what to do.”

My emphasis added in the quote.

Taleb also observes how our economy is capitalistic when private industry profitable, but socialistic when private industry is unprofitable.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

"Bad Bank" Rally

Financials are ripping it up today because a "bad bank" solution to the market's troubles is in the offing. Well, before any declares the financial crisis over, I have a few questions:


- How will the bad bank price the assets? This was the problem with the TARP in the first place.

- Who is going to run the bank bank? Seems like the FDIC wants the job, although their restructuring efforts as of late are unimpressive.

- How will the bad bank pay for the assets? I am assuming the Treasury will issue debt.

- Will the sellers maintain any profit / loss potential from the disposed assets?

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Cram Down Update



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123309817136221693.html





House panel approves legislation. Let the games begin.....

Monday, January 26, 2009

Volatile Day for Bank Stocks

KBW Bank Index traded up as much as 4% and traded down as much as 4.4%, finally closing down 3% for the session. A bearish report on the sector (they like JPM however) by Goldman Sachs was given credit for the trade-off.



The link below will take you to the Treasury Department website for a full list off TARP allocations.

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/reports/012209cpptablets01.pdf

Just the Tip of the Ice(land)berg...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/world/europe/27iceland.html?_r=1&hp

"Iceland's Government Collapses"


Back on 11/17/08, I put up a post on the troubles in Iceland. Things have not improved, in fact most of Europe is in the midst of a very difficult period. The Euro is past its glory days and the bill needs to be paid.

Cram Down and Wide Mortgage Spreads

For over a year, there have been debates about the consideration of mortgage loans in bankruptcy filings. Traditionally, mortgage loans on a primary residence were not included in bankruptcy proceedings, i.e. the borrower could not get rid of the mortgage loan by declaring bankruptcy.

However, there have been indications that the government will allow bankruptcy court judges to modify mortgage loans. The term "cram down" refers to the power of the court to force loan principals lower. For instance, if a borrower owes $125,000 on a house that is now worth $100,000, the judge can cram down the loan by $25,000 (the loan floor is the property value) to facilitate payment.

Therefore, the risk to holders of mortgage loans and mortgage backed securities will increase substantially. In addition, second lien holders are especially vulnerable because the cram down will be applied to the secondary loans first.

Perhaps the below graphs highlight the concern bankers have about this issue (as well as continued defaults):




The above graph tracks fixed rate mortgage rates. Rates have fallen to new lows (moved higher last week), but that is only part of the story.




The above graph tracks the difference between the mortgage rate and the yield on the 10 year Treasury Note. The higher this spread, the more risk averse bankers are. They would rather use their TARP money to buy government debt than risk lending to prospective homeowners.

Some links for reference:


Wall Street Journal Catches up to Populus Vox

Lead article in today's Wall Street Journal:  Banks are NOT LENDING, holding on to TARP funds.  Of course, we have known that for weeks.  Back on 1/16/09 & 12/22/08 I posted reviews of the banking system excess reserves, which let all who read know that solvency was the main concern of the financial intermediaries.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

2009 Bank Failure #3




Chart on left is the bad bank list, chart on the right is a list of closed banks.


Yep, another one closed on Friday.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Freddie Muck (Mac): Just When You Think It Can't Get Any Worse....

Freddie filed some paperwork with the SEC yesterday, highlighting how poorly their business is going.  Freddie Muck anticipates a need for a $30 billion - $35 billion capital injection in the near future.

The Muck also released a rundown of their portfolio and obligations that pretty much guarantee that the tax-payer is in trouble, big trouble:

$1.827 trillion in mortgage guarantees

$870 billion in debt

$3 trillion in mortgage and mortgage backed holdings

I have also read anecdotal stories about mislabeled loans and near fraudulent activity, but I can't confirm that.  I would not be surprised though.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Goodwill: Phony Asset

When reading about corporate acquisitions, we often discover that the acquiring company pays a premium over the stock market value to take over a company. This is done to entice the seller to pony up the entire company and avoid proxy fights and extended negotiations.

The peculiar thing is that, according to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), this results in an asset called goodwill on the books of the buyer. I guess the idea is that the buyer will realize synergistic benefits from the combination and should be more highly valued.

What happens if the acquisition stinks? Shouldn't this goodwill asset be written down? The answer is yes. Several companies have written down the value goodwill (an asset that does nothing) in the last few months:

Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) - $6 billion write down reported on 1/20/09

National City Corp. (NYSE: PNC) - $1.34 billion write down reported on 11/6/08. Nat City was acquired itself by PNC on, I think, 12/31/08.

Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) - estimated GBP 17.5 billion ($24.15 billion) for year end 2008. RBS is also expected to report a total loss of $41 billion for 2008, the largest loss in U.K. history.

With the current performance of the financial markets, it is hard to believe that goodwill is worth much of anything. writing it off, although not explicitly consuming cash, does delete capital. Capital is a scarce resource. Regulators have discussed liberalizing the valuation of this nonsense asset to stabilize banks and ease capital stress.

Based on numbers reported on 9/30/08 for banks with over $10 billion in assets:

- Goodwill accounted for 3.13% of total assets: $302.8 billion

- Equity capital accounted for 9.42% of total assets: $910.5 billion

So, 33.26% of capital is a phony asset. Will you sleep better tonight?

Please click below to expand.



Wednesday, January 21, 2009

GE Puts Active Again

Mar '09 $5.0 puts
60,807 contracts traded

Feb '09 $10.0 puts
44,157 contracts traded

Feb '09 $5.0 puts
38,262 contracts traded

stock closed @ $13.03