Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Jobs Data: ADP Report

The U.S. economy lost 697,000 in February according to ADP's monthly jobs report. 3,938,000 jobs have been eliminated since (including) the February, 2008 report. This is roughly the amount of jobs that were created from May, 2005 to January, 2008.

A simple regression of the ADP number is pointing to a loss of 676,000 jobs for the BLS report (released this Friday).

I am expecting the pace of job cuts to fall off in the next few months. It seems to be the case that job cuts are usually overdone and indiscriminate when executives need to pare costs and support earnings. The negative effects need to be suffered before an appraisal period begins.

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