Durable goods came in a bit better than the consensus forecast. Of course, the market grabs this one month blip and claims it knows the bottom. i will say the following:
- January's print was revised lower, the first monthly reading below $160 billion since August of 1996
- February's print was also revised lower
- Today's print was 25% lower than March of last year
On another note, I started working on my forecast of the jobs report due the first week of May. I believe that we will see another drop over 600k. It is said that the jobs data is a lagging indicator. I'll take that, but should you really feel good about the economy if the payroll number is less than zero?
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