Thursday, May 14, 2009

Jobless Claims & PPI

Initial jobless claims moved higher form the previous report: 605,000 was the revised number for 5/2/09 and 637,000 was the number for 5/9/09. Several pundits claimed that the previous report marked the bottom in claims. This is a volatile series, but in any case, one month does not a trend make. Not even three months can always be trusted to mark a new direction.

This was the first report to include idled Chrysler workers, expect more in the next few weeks. In addition, a GM bankruptcy is all but certain.

Continuing claims skyrocketed over 6.5 million and he IUR rose to 4.9%, the job market is still sick. As I mentioned last week, it is possible that initial claims will taper off. However, job GROWTH is non-existent.

PPI rose month over month, but are still 3.5% lower than they were 12 months ago. Already, the press is claiming that this ends the deflation discussion. When will they learn?

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