Thursday, November 6, 2008
Big Day Tomorrow
The grand-daddy of economic numbers will be released @ 8:30 am: Non-farm Payrolls.
- September change was (159,000)
- The average of the last 3 months is (100,000)
- Based on the ADP number, estimate would be (143,000)
- Bloomberg survey of estimates: (200,000)
- My guess: (170,000)
Don't worry, I am not becoming optimistic. I think the seasonal adjustments and trend will snap this number back before we see a really bad string of numbers.
In addition, Fannie Mae may be posting their 3rd quarter earnings report tomorrow. A few things to focus on:
- Level III Assets: $56.6 billion last quarter, comprised of mainly Alt-A & sub-prime
- Loan Loss & Reserve: Provision of $5.35 billion in 2nd quarter, $1.48 billion in charge-offs
- Deferred Tax Assets: This is my favorite. Since they have been losing money, they have been counting their potential tax write-offs versus income as assets. The problem is, they are not making money. This accounted for $20.6 billion in assets last quarter, it might be written down by as much as $18 billion. By the way, stockholder equity stood at only $41.2 billion last quarter.
Posted by MK at 9:32 PM