The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases a series of three reports when estimating quarterly GDP:
- Advance
- Preliminary
- Final
Each subsequent report, in theory, provides a better estimate of production than the previous one. Today, the preliminary report for 4th Q 2008 was released. The report estimated a 6.2% DROP in GDP, the advance report contained an estimate of -3.8%. The durable goods component dropped a whopping 22.1% (annualized rate) in the quarter.
Real GDP is now back to mid 2007 levels. I still think that the economy will shrink to 2005 levels, so we have experienced 20% - 25% of the pain so far.....
1 comment:
As far as the duration of the GDP contraction, I would estimate that 2nd Q 2010 will mark the bottom.
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