Wednesday, September 2, 2009

ADP Jobs Report

ADP reported that businesses cut another 298,000 jobs last month. The data for the previous two months was revised slightly upwards, mitigating this worse than expected report. Forty-nine percent of the job losses were in the service providing sector.

Since & including 12/2007:

- 6.8 million jobs lost

- average monthly job loss of 324,000

- 19 consecutive months of losses

The economy now has the same amount of jobs as it did in December, 2003.

For what it's worth, I am forecasting that the BLS will report a loss of 262,000 on Friday. If my forecast is accurate (and that is a big if...):

Recession Recession Change In
Start End Non-Farm Payrolls
Nov-73 Mar-75 -1.62%
Jan-80 Jul-80 -1.07%
Jul-81 Nov-82 -3.08%
Jul-90 Mar-91 -1.13%
Mar-01 Nov-01 -1.21%
Dec-07 ? -5.01%

This is a recession not like many others. The above table tracks the job loss (according to the BLS) during the last few recessions.

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