Friday, September 4, 2009

Non-Farm Payrolls

According to the monthly BLS report, the economy lost 216,000 jobs last month. This was better than the consensus loss of 230,000 and certainly better than my guess (loss of 262,000). However, the BLS revised the June number and July number: 20,000 more jobs lost and 29,000 more jobs lost respectively. Oddly enough, that totals 265,000. My gut tells me that my numbers will be close to the revised value.

The cumulative job losses since December, 2007 are essentially the same between the two surveys: 6.8 million for ADP & 6.809 million for BLS.

The last two weekly unemployment claims coincide with the survey period for the September BLS tally. As it stands, I believe we are heading for another loss of at least 200,000 jobs.

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