Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Housing starts were reported today and the headline print exceeded expectations. Please note that these are rebounds from all time lows.
The above graph does not contain the headline numbers. It tracks the actual monthly activity: not seasonally adjusted, not annualized.
It is easy to pick out the seasonal patterns: May is the average peak, December is the average trough. If the trend continues, today's number would represent the peak activity. Ouch.
What are your thoughts about this number? There is obviously a tremendous supply of housing already, so a low level of starts would aid in the market rebound. However, an increase in starts keeps people working and could be indicative of a market bottom.