Monday, June 8, 2009

S&P 500 Earnings Review

With 492 of the S&P 500 members reporting, it looks like 1st quarter earnings will total $7.59 (as reported, no operating earnings nonsense). The trailing 12 month tally will be $6.93, a far cry from the high set in June of 2007: $84.92 (yep!).

Valuation is, quite frankly, on another planet. It is possible that the recession is over and this is a bull market. However, there is little caution being exercised by market participants. Protective put buying is low and the market is overvalued by almost 27% in my opinion. To pay 27% more than historical valuations tells me that a bull market is a certainty. How can anyone be that sure of a profit picture that has dropped by almost 100% and a GDP that has dropped by more than 5% for 6 months?

S&P 500 should be at 689, maybe 705 tops.

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