Thursday, May 28, 2009
I'm not sure about how to report on this, but here it goes:
Durable goods came in at $161.5 billion. The consensus estimate was a 0.4% increase from the previous month. March's number WAS $160.5 billion. Some math brings us to a figure of $161.1 billion as the dollar estimate for April. So indeed, the number exceeded estimates: 0.6% increase.
However, the increase is being reported as a 1.9% increase. Why? Well the Census Bureau revised the March number to $158.4 billion. This adjustment is causing the headfake.
Anyway, except for a one-time blip in Jan, 2002, durable goods orders are at late 1995/early 1996 levels.