Thursday, May 28, 2009

Durable Goods

I'm not sure about how to report on this, but here it goes:

Durable goods came in at $161.5 billion. The consensus estimate was a 0.4% increase from the previous month. March's number WAS $160.5 billion. Some math brings us to a figure of $161.1 billion as the dollar estimate for April. So indeed, the number exceeded estimates: 0.6% increase.

However, the increase is being reported as a 1.9% increase. Why? Well the Census Bureau revised the March number to $158.4 billion. This adjustment is causing the headfake.

Anyway, except for a one-time blip in Jan, 2002, durable goods orders are at late 1995/early 1996 levels.

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