Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Jobs Data

Way late in this, but I have not been in the mood for posting. My post (4/27/09) about not buying stocks after looking at S & P's earnings forecast was dead wrong. Financial stocks have continued to rally well past where I though they should have tired out. It also appears that my post (3/30/09) about a major bank being nationalized by tomorrow was wrong. In either case, perception is reality. When an economy losing 500,000 jobs in a month is considered good news, anything is possible. I genuinely don't know if the market is getting lulled into a sense of false comfort or the things that I have been writing about simply don't matter. Does the amount of debt matter? Does fractional reserve banking matter? Does a mounting tax burden matter? Do high earnings multiples matter? Do continuing job losses matter? Do falling prices matter? I really shouldn't say "matter", it should be "matter as much as I think it matters."

Anyway, the ADP jobs report came out this morning: 491,000 jobs lost in the month of April. Including the 12/2007 report, the economy has lost 5,218,000 jobs since the recession started. Based on ADP's numbers: 5,115,000 jobs were created from 11/2004 to 11/2007. So we are basically back to the same amount of jobs that we had 4 and a half years ago.

My forecast for Friday's BLS number is a loss of 557,000 jobs. This is based on claims data and the ADP number.

Please click to expand.

1 comment:

JobSearchNinja said...

Recessions do not only bring about tough times financially. Sadly, they set men against men and raise moral issues that most of us would rather not have to consider.